Randy Couture vs. Chuck Liddell

Weigh ins at Couture vs. Liddell 1

Weigh ins at Couture vs. Liddell 2

The main event between Randy Couture and Chuck Liddell is by all accounts expected to break the UFC’s all-time single event revenue record, which was set during their rematch at UFC 52. Given that Liddell beat Couture for the light heavyweight title in April, it’s been no secret the UFC has wanted to stage the rubber match as both fighters hold a victory over each other. Since they last met in the Octagon, Couture and Liddell were both victorious in action at UFC 54 back in August.

Couture beat fellow wrestling standout Mike Van Arsdale in a classic wrestling exhibition, and Liddell was able to avenge another one of his losses from earlier in his career when he KO’d Jeremy Horn. Couture is renowned for his conditioning from having trained in recent years to fight in 5-round championship matches, but he looked exhausted after the second round in his fight against Van Arsdale. Luckily, Van Arsdale was just as tired and Couture was successful in securing a submission early in the 3rd round for the win. Afterwards, it was revealed Randy suffered a knee injury in preparation for the fight and was unable to train for 3 weeks leading up to the match. Liddell, meanwhile, was fortunate enough in his match against Horn to keep the fight standing, as he fought his style of fight and landed bombs throughout the contest until his challenger wasn’t able to continue after being dropped in the fourth round.  
 
In their first match, Couture was successful against Liddell for the fact he wasn’t concerned about having to strike with the “Iceman” in order to setup a takedown. Having trained with noted kick boxer Maurice Smith, he was well prepared to execute his game plan of coming out aggressive and going right after Liddell, which paved the way for a huge takedown/slam early in the 1st round. It was not completely surprising to see Couture striking, but it was somewhat shocking to see him actually out striking Liddell and controlling the fight standing up. In the first two rounds Randy took Chuck down 3 times, although he wasn’t able to inflict much damage as the “Iceman” used his patented technique of using the cage to get back to his feet. However, in the 3rd round Couture won a striking exchange that seemed to take the wind out of Liddell’s sails and he looked completely stunned and fatigued after Randy took him down for the final time. Couture got the mount right away and Liddell obviously didn’t have the energy to be able to stand back up, and was finished off by an accumulation of punches.

In their rematch at UFC 52, Couture worked on specific techniques to be able to keep Liddell pinned down after he scored a takedown. However, he never got the chance to apply his new strategy as Liddell made some adjustments in his footwork and didn’t stand around and plant his feet in their second fight. Randy was able to get into a clinch, but couldn’t quite control Liddell and was unfortunately caught in the eye with a thumb, as the two fighters were breaking apart. After being poked in the eye, Couture admitted to making a tactical mistake after the restart when he chased Liddell, and by over committing he got caught on the chin with a vicious right hand 2:06 into the first round. Couture had now been KO’d for the first time in his career.

In preparation for this fight, Couture has left his Team Quest training partners in Oregon and moved down to Las Vegas to train with the likes of Andrei Arlovski, Frank Mir, and Forrest Griffin. Randy is currently going through a divorce so this move should also help him get away from any personal distractions and keep him focused on the task that lies ahead. Liddell has been on a real roll lately and his confidence is at an all-time high, he also believes Couture is now on the wrong side of 40 and has started to show signs of slowing down, especially after his performance against Van Arsdale. Still, Couture’s the type of fighter who learns from his mistakes so I don’t foresee him getting beat in the same fashion. Therefore, I believe after being KO’d in their last fight Randy will be a little more patient this time, keep the pressure on Liddell but will not over commit. Even though Liddell will try to keep moving and create some distance between himself and Couture to avoid the takedown, eventually Randy will be successful in cutting the ring off and hunting the “Iceman” down. Otherwise, if he comes out too aggressive Liddell will no doubt take advantage of it and put Randy to sleep again (where a Mandaly Bay wake-up call won’t be able to bring him to his senses).

Prediction: Couture

Frank Mir vs. Marcio “Pe De Pano” Cruz

The long awaited return of Frank Mir is finally upon us, and waiting to greet him is 6-time jiu-jitsu world champion Marcio Cruz, who will be standing in the way of Mir’s pending showdown with UFC heavyweight king Andrei Arlovski. Mir was last in the Octagon at UFC 48 when he snapped Tim Sylvia’s arm and in the process claimed the heavyweight crown, yet just three months later Frank was in a near fatal motorcycle accident that left him with a broken femur bone. During a lengthy rehabilitation, the UFC stripped Mir of his title due to his inactive status, now healthy he begins his journey towards recapturing the belt that is now worn by Arlovski. 

Mir is without question one of the best heavyweight submission artists in the sport, yet he will be tested on the ground against the 6-4, 240 lbs Cruz. “Pe De Pano” made his UFC debut at UFC 55, winning by submission early in the second round against Keigo Kunihara. Cruz trains with the Gracie Barra Combat Team, and one of his training partners is “Babalu” who has been helping Cruz make the transition from submission specialist to a well-rounded MMA fighter. Nonetheless, due to Cruz’ lack of MMA experience I think this match-up is ideal for him, as Mir is neither a great wrestler or a devastating striker so the fight is likely to be won on the ground where Cruz is most comfortable. 

Frank’s MMA experience will likely allow him to control the early stages of the fight, however I don’t think Mir will be able to submit Cruz, at least not in the 1st round (where many of Frank’s fights end). Also, Mir has a tendency sometimes to over commit to a submission, which against someone like Cruz could very well open himself up for a counter. Mir’s stamina could become a factor if the fight goes into the later rounds, as he looked exhausted in his fights with Ian Freeman and during his rematch with Wes Sims. Additionally, there have been reports that Mir has struggled in training to regain his form, so if Cruz can survive the first round I think he has an excellent chance of pulling off the upset. Should Mir lose, the UFC would have to go into damage control and immediately market Cruz as an up and coming sensation - which hopefully takes some of the sting out of possibly postponing the mega fight between Mir-Arlovski. 

Prediction: Cruz

Renato “Babalu” Sobral vs. Mike Van Arsdale

Look no further then the winner of this fight to produce the next title contender in the light heavyweight division, who will challenge the victor of the Couture – Liddell showdown. Also, don’t be surprised to see the loser of this fight taking on Stephan Bonnar in the near future, which could serve as a tough test to see where the “American Psycho” truly ranks among the top 205 lbs fighters in the UFC. Increasing the likelihood that the winner between Sobral and Van Arsdale gets a title shot is the fact Tito Ortiz’ next two fights have him linked to Forrest Griffin and Ken Shamrock, so this fight undoubtedly has big implications in the division.

Mike Van Arsdale is a world-class wrestler who was unbeaten after two UFC appearances until he ran into a determined Randy Couture in his last fight, and lost by submission. Van Arsdale displayed improved striking in his fight against Couture compared to his previous UFC outings, which is surely the result of having trained with the American Kickboxing Academy. Throughout the first two rounds Couture tried valiantly to secure a gator roll submission, yet Van Arsdale was successful defending it until his conditioning came back to haunt him. Van Arsdale’s conditioning has been somewhat suspect within the MMA world and Couture even mentioned after the fight that Van Arsdale fatiguing early in the 3rd round allowed him to sink the submission in and register the victory. 

“Babalu” is the complete package, combining wrestling, jiu-jitsu, and Mauy Thai into a deadly arsenal. He has been on an absolute tear since he lost to Liddell at UFC 40, and is currently riding a 9-fight winning streak heading into this match. He accomplished quite a feat in 2003 when he won a one-night tournament defeating Trevor Prangley, Mauricio Rua and Jeremy Horn en route to winning the IFC light heavyweight championship. “Babalu” made his return to the famed Octagon at UFC 52, where he took on powerful wrestler Travis Wiuff, and caught the former heavyweight in an armbar 24 seconds into round two. In his last UFC appearance he defeated another wrestler, highly regarded Chael Sonnen, and for the most part was able to neutralize Sonnen’s wrestling skills and got the victory in the second round with a triangle choke.

Fighting a great wrestler shouldn’t present any new challenges for “Babalu”, as he’s won his last two UFC fights from his back. Furthermore, he’s got very good sweeps from his back so he’s also capable of getting the top position too. Look for “Babalu” to get a submission in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Prediction: Sobral

Nick Diaz vs. Joe Riggs

This fight is an absolute must win for Nick Diaz and Joe Riggs, both are coming off defeats and another loss could see the loser exiled from the UFC for an undetermined period of time. This will be Riggs’ 3rd fight at 170 lbs since dropping down from middleweight, he won his debut against Chris Lytle but was steamrolled by Matt Hughes in his last fight. Diaz on the other hand was on somewhat of a roll in the UFC heading into his last fight, winning 4 of 5 fights, the loss came in a close split decision against Karo Paisyan. However, in a very feisty match, Diaz was outworked on the ground by the ultra aggressive Diego Sanchez and lost a unanimous decision in his last appearance inside the Octagon. 

Riggs is a strong wrestler, who also has lethal hands and claims he will stand and bang with anybody in the sport. Riggs is also very dangerous when he’s fighting from within an opponents guard, as he is able to rise up and land heavy punches and elbows, which were quite evident when he punished Joe Doerkson. However, a big concern for Riggs heading into this fight is how he’s doing cutting weight, as he went through quite an ordeal in his fight against Hughes, when he did not make the weight limit. Given Riggs has experienced some problems trying to make final weight cuts at a lower weight, this could cause problems with his stamina if the fight goes into the later rounds.

Diaz is a jiu-jitsu ace, but he has also shown very good striking and he has a good chin. For Diaz, fighting a deadly striker is nothing new as he was in a similar situation when he fought Robbie Lawler at UFC 47. In a shocking display Diaz was able to out strike the “Ruthless One”, who had been known for his heavy hands and willingness to stand-up and trade shots. Diaz showed tremendous confidence in his striking and he even began mocking Lawler throughout the first round before connecting with a right hook that KO’d Lawler in the 2nd round.

Diaz will likely dictate the pace of this fight, if he wants to stand-up and strike it could make for the “fight of the night”. Diaz is quite effective at slipping punches so I don’t believe he will get caught with one of Riggs’ power shots, but it is very possible Diaz will be taken down. However, Diaz is more then comfortable working from his back and is big threat to slap on a submission if Riggs gets careless, as was the case in his fight with Ivan Salaverry.

Prediction: Diaz

Justin Eilers vs. Brandon Vera

Justin Eilers has dropped his last two fights, and his most recent outing was against Andrei Arlovski in a failed attempt to win the heavyweight title. After the match against Arlovski, Eilers was medically suspended for six months for the plethora of injuries he suffered at the hands of the “Pit-bull”. Brandon Vera is a jiu-jitsu and Mauy Thai champion and is coming off a win over Fabiano Scherner in his Zuffa debut at Ultimate Fight Night 2. Vera really opened the fight up in the 2nd round when he landed a number of legs kicks, and eventually caught Scherner in a Mauy Thai clinch and delivered a series of devastating knees which brought a halt to the bout. 

After Eilers last fight there was talk about him dropping weight and competing at 205 lbs, however this fight will take place at heavyweight. Vera has also expressed an interest in fighting at light heavyweight, and even went so far to call out Chuck Liddell back in October. Even if reports of Eilers slimming down to get closer to 205 lbs for his next fight are true, he still possesses knockout power in either hand. Eilers throws his punches with a reckless abandon, so his best chance of success is to keep the fight standing and land a bomb. However, he’ll need to avoid getting caught in a clinch and having a hurricane of knees unloaded on him. Nevertheless, I think Vera has more then enough tools to counter anything Eilers will throw at him, if he believes he can win striking he’ll keep the fight standing. If he thinks Eilers is moving better and striking more effectively, he will take the fight to the ground and work his submission game.

Prediction: Vera

In other action…
Look for Paul Buentello to get back into the win column and try to climb back up the heavyweight ranks with a win over Gilbert Aldana

Explosive light heavyweight striker Alessio Sakara will use Elvis Sinosic as a stepping stone to get recognition as one of the top 205 lbs prospects.

Submission specialist Jeff Monson’s return to the UFC should see him getting past “Hammer House” product Brandon Lee Hinkle.

In a battle of TUF 2 veterans, expect Mike Whitehead to atone for his disappointing performance on the reality show by defeating Keith Jardine.