Tonight’s Ultimate Fighter season 2 finale main event features a really intriguing match-up between Nick Diaz, an established welterweight contender and Diego Sanchez, a rising star who is trying to shed the tag of “overnight sensation”. To add to the drama, there’s already some bad blood between the two fighters, Diaz seems to believe Sanchez’s MMA record is inflated with victories over mediocre talent and Sanchez claims that Diaz is jealous of his success and stardom.

Tonight’s Ultimate Fighter season 2 finale main event features a really intriguing match-up between Nick Diaz, an established welterweight contender and Diego Sanchez, a rising star who is trying to shed the tag of “overnight sensation”. To add to the drama, there’s already some bad blood between the two fighters, Diaz seems to believe Sanchez’s MMA record is inflated with victories over mediocre talent and Sanchez claims that Diaz is jealous of his success and stardom.

This is an especially big fight for Nick Diaz as it puts him front and centre in his first UFC main event. Diaz made his Octagon debut at UFC 44 against Jeremy Jackson in what was their rubber match.  The Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu standout showcased his excellent submission skills when from his guard he was able to catch Jackson in an armbar for the tapout midway through the third round. Going into his next fight, Diaz had gained the reputation of having solid submission skills but he was still an underdog against Robbie Lawler at UFC 47. In a shocking display Diaz was able to out strike the “Ruthless One”, who had been known for his heavy hands and willingness to stand-up and trade shots. Diaz showed tremendous confidence in his striking and he even began mocking Lawler throughout the first round before connecting with a right hook that KO’d Lawler in the 2^nd round. Diaz’s next UFC appearance saw him face another up and coming welterweight fighter, Karo Parisyan, and after three tough rounds he lost a close (and controversial) split decision. That fight proved to be huge for Parisyan, as he won his next two fights and was then awarded a title fight with Matt Hughes. Diaz has also since rolled off two consecutive victories, defeating both Drew Fickett and Koji Oishi in the first round. He now finds himself in a position needing to beat Sanchez in order to secure his ranking as one of the top 3 or 4 welterweights in the UFC, and likely earn a title shot after Georges St. Pierre (assuming he defeats Sean Sherk at UFC 56) gets his second crack at the title holder.

Diego Sanchez was The Ultimate Fighter’s season one middleweight winner but compared to that season’s other winner, Forrest Griffin, most people would agree Sanchez has been somewhat forgotten about in the public’s eye. Unlike Griffin, Sanchez hasn’t been able to secure an endorsement deal with Xyience, or be featured as a co-host on Spike TV’s UFC Unleashed specials. That is mainly due to the fact that after Sanchez’s victory over Kenny Florian he required hip surgery and was away from the sport for a number of months. He made his UFC pay-per-view debut in August at UFC 54 against Brian Gassaway and showed good Jiu-Jitsu and excellent GnP, as Gassaway tapped out after a barrage of elbows and punches in the second round. Now that Sanchez is back he feels he’s the best welterweight in the world, the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, the uncrowned champion and is ready to face Matt Hughes. With only two official UFC fights under his belt, those are pretty bold statements, but he’ll get the opportunity to back up those claims when he’s tested against the highly skilled Nick Diaz.

In order for Sanchez to be successful he’ll have to score the takedown and work his GnP, however, unlike Gassaway, even if Diaz is taken down he is more then comfortable working from his back and is big threat to slap on a submission if Sanchez gets careless. Also, Sanchez has been working on his boxing for this fight but Diaz has shown very good striking and he’s got a good chin, the edge in the stand-up would certainly have to go to Diaz. In his UFC appearances no one has really seen Diego stand and strike, he’s usually working to take the fight to the ground right from the opening, however I think Diaz will be able to stuff Sanchez’s takedown attempts and keep the fight on their feet in the early stages and test his striking. This will likely frustrate Sanchez as he’s not very accustomed to fighting someone else’s fight, and if Diaz can hold off Sanchez early in the fight he’ll be able to control the tempo for majority of the three rounds.   

Prediction: Nick Diaz via decision